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Japan is on track to sustainably meet the central bank's 2% inflation target, supported by strong consumption and capital expenditure, according to the IMF. While inflation risks are balanced, growth faces potential downside threats, including a global economic slowdown. The BOJ is urged to gradually withdraw monetary support as the economy aligns with forecasts, with expectations of 1.2% growth in 2025 and a slight inflation decrease to 2.4%.
Barclays anticipates significant US tariff increases, projecting 30% on China and 10% on other countries, raising the average tariff rate to 15%. This shift is expected to slow global growth, with forecasts indicating a 2.5% growth rate for Q4 2025 and a rise in consumer savings due to economic uncertainty. The bank warns of potential market volatility as consumers face job losses and higher prices.
Lloyds shares have surged 31% in 2025, reaching levels not seen in nearly a decade, with analysts raising price targets. Despite a reasonable forward P/E ratio and a strong dividend yield, concerns linger over a motor finance scandal and the UK’s economic outlook, prompting caution among investors.
The Cac 40 index faces short-term risks amid a volatile environment influenced by US economic concerns, including a potential contraction in growth and deteriorating consumer confidence. While European markets, bolstered by Germany's fiscal stimulus and ECB policy adjustments, show promise, the Cac 40 remains within a bullish channel, currently testing lower support levels. A range between 7,000 and 8,260 points may emerge, but fundamental reasons for caution are limited in the coming months.
Silver prices have returned to test the 2024 high of $35/ounce, benefiting from its safe-haven appeal amid geopolitical tensions and a decline in the dollar's global reserve share. However, its industrial use makes it sensitive to economic cycles, with recent U.S. economic data showing weakness. A breach above $35 could signal a bullish trend towards $40, while a drop below $31 would indicate a bearish outlook.
Goldman Sachs has downgraded the UK's economic growth forecast for this year from 0.9% to 0.8% and for 2026 from 1.3% to 1.2%, citing increased trade tensions and potential US tariffs. The bank warns that any UK-US deal may not mitigate the broader impacts of US tariffs on the EU, leaving significant uncertainty regarding future tariffs on the UK.
Banque Raiffeisen reported a net profit of €28.1 million for 2024, a decline of over a third from €43.9 million in 2023, which included a one-time gain of €18.4 million from restructuring. Excluding this gain, the bank's profit improved by 10%. Customer deposits rose by 7.8% to €10.3 billion, while lending activity increased by 2% to €7.86 billion, reflecting a slight recovery in the housing market. Despite a modest growth of 1.7% in net interest income, overall banking income grew by 3.6% to €246 million, with operating costs rising due to higher staff expenses.
Goldman Sachs has downgraded its 12-month forecast for Europe’s STOXX 600, anticipating price returns of -6% in three months, -2% in six months, and 5% in a year, due to rising tariff concerns and weaker economic growth in the US and Europe. Earnings growth expectations for European companies have also been reduced, with projections of 2% growth in 2025 and 4% in 2026, below consensus estimates. The firm highlights that while European equities are trading at a discount compared to US stocks, the outlook remains sensitive to US trade policies and potential economic downturns.
Goldman Sachs has revised its U.S. stock market outlook, lowering the year-end target for the S&P 500 index to 5,700 from 6,200, reflecting concerns over President Trump's tariff policies and economic slowdown risks. The firm also cut its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1% and now anticipates three Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, citing the need for "insurance-style" measures against economic downturns.
Goldman Sachs has raised the likelihood of a recession under President Trump to 35%, citing the risks from new tariffs and a decline in household and business confidence. The firm predicts a 0.3% increase in unemployment, estimating that Trump's policies could reduce GDP growth by 1.2% over the next year. Meanwhile, Moody's Analytics has also increased its recession probability to 40%, warning of a potential "recession by design."
GDP Growth & Recession Forecasts
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The information provided herein is generated by experimental artificial intelligence and is for informational purposes only.
IMF predicts Japan will sustainably meet inflation target amid economic growth
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